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Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024
- Mercedes Bustamante, Joyashree Roy, Daniel Ospina, Ploy Achakulwisut, Anubha Aggarwal, Ana Bastos, Wendy Broadgate, Josep G. Canadell, Edward R. Carr, Deliang Chen, Helen A. Cleugh, Kristie L. Ebi, Clea Edwards, Carol Farbotko, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Thomas L. Frölicher, Sabine Fuss, Oliver Geden, Nicolas Gruber, Luke J. Harrington, Judith Hauck, Zeke Hausfather, Sophie Hebden, Aniek Hebinck, Saleemul Huq, Matthias Huss, M. Laurice P. Jamero, Sirkku Juhola, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, Shuaib Lwasa, Bishawjit Mallick, Maria Martin, Steven McGreevy, Paula Mirazo, Aditi Mukherji, Greg Muttitt, Gregory F. Nemet, David Obura, Chukwumerije Okereke, Tom Oliver, Ben Orlove, Nadia S. Ouedraogo, Prabir K. Patra, Mark Pelling, Laura M. Pereira, Åsa Persson, Julia Pongratz, Anjal Prakash, Anja Rammig, Colin Raymond, Aaron Redman, Cristobal Reveco, Johan Rockström, Regina Rodrigues, David R. Rounce, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Peter Schlosser, Odirilwe Selomane, Gregor Semieniuk, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tasneem A. Siddiqui, Vartika Singh, Giles B. Sioen, Youba Sokona, Detlef Stammer, Norman J. Steinert, Sunhee Suk, Rowan Sutton, Lisa Thalheimer, Vikki Thompson, Gregory Trencher, Kees van der Geest, Saskia E. Werners, Thea Wübbelmann, Nico Wunderling, Jiabo Yin, Kirsten Zickfeld, Jakob Zscheischler
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Accepted manuscript
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 December 2023, pp. 1-58
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- Article
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Chapter 2 - Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability
- from Section III
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- By Omar-Dario Cardona, Maarten K. van Aalst, Jörn Birkmann, Maureen Fordham, Glenn McGregor, Rosa Perez, Roger S. Pulwarty, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Bach Tan Sinh, Henri Décamps, Mark Keim, Ian Davis, Kristie L. Ebi, Allan Lavell, Reinhard Mechler, Virginia Murray, Mark Pelling, Jürgen Pohl, Anthony-Oliver Smith, Frank Thomalla
- Edited by Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker, Qin Dahe
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- Book:
- Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 28 May 2012, pp 65-108
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Summary
Executive Summary
The severity of the impacts of extreme and non-extreme weather and climate events depends strongly on the level of vulnerability and exposure to these events (high confidence). [2.2.1, 2.3, 2.5] Trends in vulnerability and exposure are major drivers of changes in disaster risk, and of impacts when risk is realized (high confidence). [2.5] Understanding the multi-faceted nature of vulnerability and exposure is a prerequisite for determining how weather and climate events contribute to the occurrence of disasters, and for designing and implementing effective adaptation and disaster risk management strategies. [2.2, 2.6]
Vulnerability and exposure are dynamic, varying across temporal and spatial scales, and depend on economic, social, geographic, demographic, cultural, institutional, governance, and environmental factors (high confidence). [2.2, 2.3, 2.5] Individuals and communities are differentially exposed and vulnerable and this is based on factors such as wealth, education, race/ethnicity/religion, gender, age, class/caste, disability, and health status. [2.5] Lack of resilience and capacity to anticipate, cope with, and adapt to extremes and change are important causal factors of vulnerability. [2.4]
Extreme and non-extreme weather and climate events also affect vulnerability to future extreme events, by modifying the resilience, coping, and adaptive capacity of communities, societies, or social-ecological systems affected by such events (high confidence). [2.4.3] At the far end of the spectrum – low-probability, highintensity events – the intensity of extreme climate and weather events and exposure to them tend to be more pervasive in explaining disaster loss than vulnerability in explaining the level of impact.
Summary for Policymakers
- from Section II
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- By Simon K. Allen, Vicente Barros, Ian Burton, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Omar-Dario Cardona, Susan L. Cutter, O. Pauline Dube, Kristie L. Ebi, Christopher B. Field, John W. Handmer, Padma N. Lal, Allan Lavell, Katharine J. Mach, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Gordon A. McBean, Reinhard Mechler, Tom Mitchell, Neville Nicholls, Karen L. O'Brien, Taikan Oki, Michael Oppenheimer, Mark Pelling, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Roger S. Pulwarty, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Thomas F. Stocker, Maarten K. van Aalst, Carolina S. Vera, Thomas J. Wilbanks
- Edited by Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker, Qin Dahe
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- Book:
- Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 28 May 2012, pp 3-22
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Summary
Context
This Summary for Policymakers presents key findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The SREX approaches the topic by assessing the scientific literature on issues that range from the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events (‘climate extremes’) to the implications of these events for society and sustainable development. The assessment concerns the interaction of climatic, environmental, and human factors that can lead to impacts and disasters, options for managing the risks posed by impacts and disasters, and the important role that non-climatic factors play in determining impacts. Box SPM.1 defines concepts central to the SREX.
The character and severity of impacts from climate extremes depend not only on the extremes themselves but also on exposure and vulnerability. In this report, adverse impacts are considered disasters when they produce widespread damage and cause severe alterations in the normal functioning of communities or societies. Climate extremes, exposure, and vulnerability are influenced by a wide range of factors, including anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability, and socioeconomic development (Figure SPM.1). Disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change focus on reducing exposure and vulnerability and increasing resilience to the potential adverse impacts of climate extremes, even though risks cannot fully be eliminated (Figure SPM.2). Although mitigation of climate change is not the focus of this report, adaptation and mitigation can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change. [SYR AR4, 5.3]
Chapter 8 - Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future
- from Section III
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- By Karen O'Brien, Mark Pelling, Anand Patwardhan, Stephane Hallegatte, Andrew Maskrey, Taikan Oki, Úrsula Oswald-Spring, Thomas Wilbanks, Pius Zebhe Yanda, Carlo Giupponi, Nobuo Mimura, Frans Berkhout, Reinette Biggs, Hans Günter Brauch, Katrina Brown, Carl Folke, Lisa Harrington, Howard Kunreuther, Carmen Lacambra, Robin Leichenko, Reinhard Mechler, Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Valentin Przyluski, David Satterthwaite, Frank Sperling, Linda Sygna, Thomas Tanner, Petra Tschakert, Kirsten Ulsrud, Vincent Viguié
- Edited by Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker, Qin Dahe
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- Book:
- Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 28 May 2012, pp 437-486
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Summary
Executive Summary
Actions that range from incremental steps to transformational changes are essential for reducing risk from weather and climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence). [8.6, 8.7] Incremental steps aim to improve efficiency within existing technological, governance, and value systems, whereas transformation may involve alterations of fundamental attributes of those systems. The balance between incremental and transformational approaches depends on evolving risk profiles and underlying social and ecological conditions. Disaster risk, climate change impacts, and capacity to cope and adapt are unevenly distributed. Vulnerability is often concentrated in poorer countries or groups, although the wealthy can also be vulnerable to extreme events. Where vulnerability is high and adaptive capacity relatively low, changes in extreme climate and weather events can make it difficult for systems to adapt sustainably without transformational changes. Such transformations, where they are required, are facilitated through increased emphasis on adaptive management, learning, innovation, and leadership.
Evidence indicates that disaster risk management and adaptation policy can be integrated, reinforcing, and supportive – but this requires careful coordination that reaches across domains of policy and practice (high agreement, medium evidence). [8.2, 8.3, 8.5, 8.7] Including disaster risk management in resilient and sustainable development pathways is facilitated through integrated, systemic approaches that enhance capacity to cope with, adapt to, and shape unfolding processes of change, while taking into consideration multiple stressors, different prioritized values, and competing policy goals.